



|
 |


Midtown Major Market Analysis:
42nd Street to 62nd Street
River to River: Third Quarter, 2007
Analysis
The Midtown market is composed of the following
submarkets: Columbus Circle, Plaza District, Times Square, Midtown Eastside,
Sixth Avenue, Rockefeller Plaza, Park Avenue, and Grand Central.
The inventory of the Midtown market is primarily comprised of Class A
properties. At the end of the first quarter, the market consisted of 121.1M
sq ft of Class A space (63% of the market); 35.4M sq ft of Class B space
(18%); 14.8M sq ft of Class C space (8%); and 21.9M sq ft of Class D space
(11%).
| Building Class |
Inventory Sq Ft
(in ‘000s) |
Availability Sq Ft
(in ‘000s) |
% Vacancy |
Avg Asking Rate ($/psf) |
| A |
121,110 |
7,657 |
6.3% |
$86.96 |
| B |
35,353 |
2,678 |
7.6% |
$71.52 |
| C |
14,845 |
1,260 |
8.5% |
$58.54 |
| D |
21,892 |
1,724 |
7.9% |
$59.34 |
| Total |
193,199 |
13,318 |
6.9% |
$77.59 |
Key takeaways of our third quarter analysis
include: Asking rate growth accelerates.
The Midtown average asking rate grew 21.9% y/y to $77.59
psf, an acceleration from 2Q’s 14.4% y/y growth for the strongest growth in
any quarter for over two years. Growth accelerated across all property
classes, but the most notable growth occurred in Class A and B properties,
which combine to account for 81% of total inventory and 78% of total
availability as of September. The Class A average asking rate grew 25.2% y/y
to $86.96 psf, representing a $5.89 increase over 2Q, while the Class B
average asking rate grew 24.5% y/y to $71.52 psf, representing a $7.11
increase over 2Q’s level. Rate growth in Class C and D buildings was also
strong, though these classes account for only 19% of total market inventory
and 22% of availability. Class C rate growth accelerated to 19.3% y/y from
2Q’s 10.2%, resulting in an asking rate of $58.54 psf, up $4.32
sequentially. Class D rate growth accelerated to 9.9% y/y from 2Q’s 6.3%,
resulting in an asking rate of $59.34 psf, up $2.20 sequentially. Also of
note, most of the rate growth in 3Q was driven by direct lease space, which
saw rate growth of 21.7% y/y to $80.19 psf vs. sublease space, which saw
rate growth of 11.7% y/y to $64.65 psf. 3Q marks the first quarter since
2Q06 that saw direct lease rate growth in excess of sublease rate growth.
Additionally, the percentage of availability accounted for by direct space
has increased steadily over the last three quarters, reaching 78% of total
market availability in 3Q, up from 69% at year end 2006. This increase
represents a further driver of total average asking rate growth as direct
space currently trades at a 24% premium to sublease space in the market.
Low vacancy falls still further driving rate
growth. Midtown vacancy fell significantly to 6.9%
at quarter end, representing a 169 bps y/y decline and a 101 bps sequential
decline from 2Q’s 7.9%. This vacancy reduction suggests the limited supply
of space that has driven Midtown rate growth has grown even tighter despite
less expensive alternatives in Midtown South and Downtown markets. Midtown
continues to outpace both Midtown South and Downtown in rate growth with
21.9% y/y growth in 3Q07, vs. Midtown South at 14.4% y/y growth and Downtown
at 14.6% y/y growth.
Sequential vacancy decreases in Midtown were seen across all but Class D
buildings, with the most meaningful decreases in Class B and C properties.
Class B vacancy dropped 310 bps sequentially to 7.6% in 3Q, while Class C
vacancy fell 175 bps sequentially to 8.5%. Class A vacancy was also down 100
bps y/y to 6.3%, though this represented only a 54 bps sequential reduction
simply due to the fact that Class A vacancy has little room left for further
reductions. 3Q07 represents the eighth straight quarter of Class A direct
vacancy below 5%. During that time the Class A direct lease asking rate has
increased $26.21 psf, driving the increase in total market asking rates of
$19.62 over the same period. Class D was the only property class that did
not see a sequential vacancy decline, with 3Q vacancy of 7.9% representing a
26 bps sequential increase from 2Q’s 7.6%. However, this still represented a
51 bps y/y decline.
Absorption swings positive.
Total available space in the Midtown market decreased by
2.0M sq ft in 3Q07 as 4.2M sq ft of space was leased up, offset by 2.2M sq
ft of newly available space. 3Q absorption represents a return to the
improvement in absorption that started back in 4Q06, but was interrupted in
2Q07 when an increase in available space of 2.7M sq ft drove negative
absorption of 478K sq ft. Of the 2.0M sq ft of space that came off the
market in 3Q, 56% was attributable to Class B space, while 33% was
attributable to Class A space. As a result, the percentage of availability
attributable to higher rate Class A space increased slightly to 57% in 3Q
from 54% in 2Q, contributing another driver to rate growth in the quarter. Summary:
| Total Inventory |
193.2M sq ft |
781 buildings |
| Class A (1969-current) |
121.1M sq ft |
194 buildings |
| Class B (1931-1969) |
35.4M sq ft |
154 buildings |
Class C
(before 1931>250,000 sq ft) |
14.8M sq ft |
33 buildings |
Class
D
(before 1931<250,000 sq ft) |
21.9M sq ft |
400 buildings |
3Q 2007 Asking Rates:
| Class |
A |
B |
C |
D |
Wtd Avg |
| Direct |
$92.89 |
73.40 |
60.84 |
60.82 |
80.19 |
| Sublease |
68.70 |
57.98 |
36.24 |
38.39 |
65.65 |
| Wtd Avg |
86.96 |
71.52 |
58.54 |
59.34 |
77.59 |
3Q 2007 Asking Rates vs. 2Q 2007:
| Class |
A |
B |
C |
D |
Wtd Avg |
| 3Q 2007 Wtd Avg |
$86.96 |
71.52 |
58.54 |
59.34 |
77.59 |
| 2Q 2007 Wtd Avg |
81.07 |
64.41 |
54.23 |
57.14 |
71.67 |
| |
5.89 |
7.11 |
4.31 |
2.20 |
5.92 |
3Q 2007 Asking Rates vs. 3Q 2006:
| Class |
A |
B |
C |
D |
Wtd Avg |
| 3Q 2007 Wtd Avg |
$86.96 |
71.52 |
58.54 |
59.34 |
77.59 |
| 3Q 2006 Wtd Avg |
69.47 |
57.46 |
49.06 |
54.00 |
63.64 |
| |
17.49 |
14.06 |
9.48 |
5.34 |
13.95 |
Completed transactions.
The fifteen largest lease transactions completed
in the Midtown market in the third quarter of 2007 are as follows:
| |
Address |
Tenant |
Square Feet |
| 1 |
437 Madison Avenue |
Omnicom Group, Inc |
348,000 |
| 2 |
305 East 46th Street |
The United Nations |
180,000 |
| 3 |
450 Lexington Avenue |
Warburg Pincus |
141,000 |
| 4 |
340 Madison Avenue |
National Financial Partners |
99,485 |
| 5 |
301 East 57th Street |
Ruder Finn, Inc. |
85,000 |
| 6 |
11 West 42nd Street |
Gemstar-TV Guide International, Inc. |
85,000 |
| 7 |
135 West 50th Street |
Mizuho Trust & Banking Co |
44,790 |
| 8 |
625 Madison Avenue |
Polo Ralph Lauren |
35,000 |
| 9 |
114 West 47th Street |
Axinn, Veltrop,
Harkrider LLP |
34,143 |
| 10 |
555 West 57th Street |
CBS Broadcasting |
32,721 |
| 11 |
805 Third Avenue |
Poten & Partners |
30,000 |
| 12 |
153 East 53rd Street |
Crowell & Moring |
30,000 |
| 13 |
One Rockefeller Plaza |
Global Asset Management |
26,668 |
| 14 |
485 Lexington Avenue |
Konica Minolta Business
Solutions, Inc. |
26,400 |
| 15 |
245 Park Avenue |
DiMaio Ahmad Capital LLC |
23,826 |

Charts
[click to enlarge]

Absorption
[click to enlarge]

Supporting Market Detail
[click to enlarge]
| For further information
contact: |
|
M. Myers Mermel
Chief Executive Officer
(212) 943-7777 |
Caroline McLain
Chief Financial Officer
(212) 943-1902 |
|
|
|
© Copyright 2007, TenantWise.com Incorporated. All Rights
Reserved.
|
 |